On December 26, 2025, Israel became the first member of the United Nations to officially recognise Somaliland as an independent state. This decision has significantly altered the political landscape of the Horn of Africa, a region already affected by conflict, fragile governance, and foreign competition for influence.
Israel’s move has drawn strong reactions across Africa and the Middle East. Critics warn that the decision could worsen instability, deepen divisions in Somalia, and increase security risks around the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
A Controversial Diplomatic Shift
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented the recognition as part of a wider foreign policy strategy linked to the Abraham Accords. According to Israeli officials, the move fits into broader cooperation with Gulf Arab states and aims to counter Iranian influence.
However, many regional experts see the decision differently. They argue that Israel is exporting Middle Eastern rivalries into the Horn of Africa. This is a region where political borders remain sensitive and where armed groups already exploit weak state authority.
As a result, the recognition of Somaliland has raised alarms far beyond Somalia’s borders.
Strong International Rejection
The response from the international community was swift and unified. The African Union, Arab League, Gulf Cooperation Council, United Nations, and several countries—including Somalia, Djibouti, Egypt, and Türkiye—publicly rejected Israel’s decision.
African Union Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf cited the 1964 OAU principle on border integrity, which protects colonial-era borders to prevent conflict. He warned that recognising Somaliland sets a “dangerous precedent” that could destabilise the entire continent.
This broad opposition reflects deep concern that the move could encourage separatist movements elsewhere in Africa.
Why the Red Sea Matters
To understand the timing of Israel’s decision, it is important to look at the Red Sea.
The Red Sea is no longer just a trade route. It has become a key battleground for global power competition. Since November 2023, Yemen’s Houthi movement has attacked more than 190 commercial ships, forcing many vessels to reroute around southern Africa.
These diversions have increased shipping costs and delayed global trade. According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, protection fees alone now cost shipping companies around $180 million per month.
At the centre of this strategic zone lies the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway that handles about one-third of global maritime trade, including oil and container shipments.
Somaliland’s Strategic Value
Somaliland’s coastline along the Gulf of Aden gives it strategic importance. For Israel, recognition could provide three major advantages.
First, Somaliland could offer a naval logistics hub, allowing Israeli vessels to maintain a steady presence near the Red Sea. Second, it could help counter Houthi influence along Yemen’s coast. Third, it could extend the geopolitical reach of the Abraham Accords into East Africa.
An Israeli security report published in 2025 described the Red Sea as a “distinct strategic arena” where economic and political influence matters as much as military power. Recognising Somaliland helps Israel secure a foothold in this space.
The UAE’s Quiet Influence
Any discussion of Somaliland must also consider the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Over the past 15 years, the UAE has expanded its influence in the Horn of Africa through port investments and logistics deals. This strategy, often described as port-based power projection, allows Abu Dhabi to gain influence without direct political control.
In 2016, UAE-owned DP World invested $442 million to develop the Port of Berbera in Somaliland. The deal gave DP World a 30-year concession, with an option to extend it for another decade.
Although the UAE initially sought a military base at Berbera, it later rebranded the project as commercial after facing international criticism. However, the long-term effect has been to tie Somaliland’s economy closely to Emirati interests.
Security Risks and Armed Groups
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland also coincides with worrying security developments.
According to UN investigators, Somalia’s al-Shabaab group and Yemen’s Houthis have increased cooperation. In 2024, they reportedly moved from communication to direct meetings and weapons transfers.
The Houthis have provided al-Shabaab with drones, missiles, and training. In return, al-Shabaab offers smuggling routes and regional networks.
This partnership creates serious risks. Together, these groups could expand attacks across the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, targeting ships, ports, and civilian infrastructure.
A Fragmented Security Environment
If Somaliland operates as a de facto independent state aligned with Israel and the UAE, maritime security will become even more complex. The region would then include
In such an environment, enforcing maritime law becomes extremely difficult. Attacks on shipping could increase, raising costs and disrupting global supply chains.
Three Dangerous Scenarios Ahead
Recognising Somaliland may increase foreign influence, but it weakens Somalia’s unity. Investment flows could widen the gap between Somaliland and southern Somalia, deepening political fragmentation.
Armed groups are already using the recognition as propaganda. They argue that foreign powers are deliberately breaking Somalia apart, a message that resonates with marginalised youth.
If regional rivalries deepen, the Red Sea could become a long-term conflict zone. Attacks may spread south toward Kenya and Djibouti, creating multiple threat zones that traditional security forces cannot easily control.
A Risky Path Forward
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is more than a diplomatic gesture. It reshapes alliances, encourages fragmentation, and increases security risks in one of the world’s most sensitive regions.
Without a broader effort to stabilise Somalia and strengthen regional cooperation, this decision could accelerate conflict rather than bring security.
For the Horn of Africa, already standing on fragile ground, the consequences could be severe and long-lasting.