Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation long marked by political instability, is once again at the centre of a storm. Last Wednesday, military officers announced they had taken control of the state, claiming they acted to prevent a destabilisation plot involving politicians and a “well-known drug baron.”
But the events unfolding in Bissau have raised more questions than answers, with regional leaders, analysts, and even former presidents hinting that the so-called coup may not be a coup at all.
A Nation With a History of Political Turmoil
Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, Guinea-Bissau has experienced at least nine coups and coup attempts. No elected president has ever completed a full term without facing an armed rebellion, political crisis, or assassination attempt.
Against that backdrop, reports of gunfire near the presidential palace and the detention of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló initially seemed like another addition to its long list of power struggles. Soldiers later appeared on state television, announcing that they had “taken responsibility for national stability.”
Yet within hours, doubt began to grow.
Signs the Takeover Was Not What It Seemed
Several aspects of the incident have puzzled observers:
- The military insisted they had seized control but rejected the word “coup”, saying the term did not reflect their intentions.
- The President was arrested but later appeared unusually calm, raising speculation about whether the confrontation was scripted.
- Key security institutions, including the presidential guard, did not mount major resistance.
- Movements of certain political figures before the “coup” suggested prior knowledge of the event.
These inconsistencies sparked suspicion across the region.
Regional Leaders Call It a ‘Staged Coup’
Two influential West African figures openly questioned the credibility of the takeover:
- Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko
- Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan
Both men suggested that the entire episode might have been orchestrated by Embaló himself either to consolidate political power, weaken rivals, or justify future crackdowns.
Jonathan, who has mediated political crises across Africa, said the events “lacked the defining elements of a genuine coup,” and warned that the incident could be a “dangerous political game.”
Sonko echoed this view, claiming the developments “appeared designed for internal political advantage rather than a real military revolt.”
The Military’s Claim: A Plot Backed by a Drug Baron
Speaking to the BBC, junta officials insisted they intervened to prevent a secret plan by unnamed politicians, who they said had ties to a powerful drug trafficker.
Guinea-Bissau is often described as a transit hub for cocaine trafficked from Latin America to Europe, a reputation that has deeply influenced its politics, security institutions, and international relationships.
The military argued that their actions were necessary to “protect the state from organised crime,” but provided no evidence to support their allegations.
President Embaló’s Position Under Scrutiny
President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has survived multiple political crises since taking office in 2020. Critics say he has repeatedly clashed with the opposition and has often relied on military alliances to maintain control.
Analysts believe he may benefit politically from portraying himself as a victim of a coup attempt a narrative that could:
- Strengthen his international legitimacy
- Justify suspending or reshaping institutions
- Silence or arrest political opponents
- Delay elections or extend executive powers
However, without clear evidence, Embaló’s involvement remains speculative.
A Country Trapped Between Politics and Illicit Networks
Guinea-Bissau’s instability is deeply tied to its reputation as a drug-trafficking hub. Political factions, military officers, and criminal groups have long been accused of competing for influence.
This blurred line between governance and organised crime often makes it difficult to distinguish political manoeuvres from genuine security crises.
The latest incident appears to follow this pattern a mixture of political intrigue, military involvement, and unverified claims of criminal influence.
Uncertain Path Ahead
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has expressed concern and may consider deploying diplomatic or security missions. The African Union has also demanded clarity from Bissau’s leadership.
For now, the situation remains unclear:
- Was the military preventing a real threat?
- Was the President manipulating events behind the scenes?
- Or was this another chapter in Guinea-Bissau’s long struggle with corruption, political rivalry, and criminal influence?
Until international investigators and regional organisations gather more evidence, the truth behind the so-called takeover may remain buried beneath years of political mistrust.
But what is certain is this: Guinea-Bissau has once again been pushed into uncertainty and its fragile democracy faces yet another test.