Eritrea and Ethiopia, two nations with intertwined histories and a legacy of both cooperation and conflict, find themselves at a crossroads once again. Despite the 2018 peace agreement, which ended decades of hostilities, tensions have simmered beneath the surface, threatening to disrupt regional stability. The relationship between these two nations often teeters between partnership and rivalry, posing a critical challenge for policymakers and international mediators.
The roots of the current tension trace back to unresolved territorial disputes, particularly over the town of Badme, which was a flashpoint during their brutal war from 1998 to 2000. Although the peace accord awarded Badme to Eritrea, Ethiopia’s reluctance to relinquish control for years fueled animosity. This issue has remained a symbol of mistrust, underscoring the difficulty of turning page on a violent past.
Eritrea’s role in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict has further complicated relations. Eritrea’s military intervention in support of the Ethiopian government against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) drew widespread condemnation from the international community. Although Ethiopia and the TPLF reached a peace deal in late 2022, Eritrea’s continued military presence in the Tigray region has been a source of friction, raising questions about its intentions and long-term strategy.
In Eritrea, President Isaias Afwerki has positioned his regime as a staunch defender of sovereignty and national pride. However, critics argue that this nationalist posture often escalates tensions with neighbors, particularly Ethiopia. Eritrea’s heavy militarization and mandatory national service policies reflect its perception of external threats, further straining its relationships within the Horn of Africa.
For Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces the daunting task of maintaining internal stability while managing complex regional dynamics. Ethiopia’s ethnically diverse population and the federalist structure of its government create persistent challenges, with various regions vying for autonomy or asserting grievances. Eritrea’s influence in these internal matters has not gone unnoticed, complicating Ethiopia’s efforts to stabilize its fractured political landscape.
Regional geopolitics also play a pivotal role. Both nations vie for influence in the strategically significant Horn of Africa, a region that serves as a gateway to international trade routes. External powers, including the United States, China, and Gulf nations, have sought to secure their interests in the region, often exacerbating rivalries between local states. For Eritrea and Ethiopia, the presence of foreign actors adds another layer of complexity to their already fraught relationship.
The international community has an essential role to play in averting a potential crisis. Diplomatic efforts should prioritize transparency, trust-building, and the implementation of previously agreed-upon commitments. The African Union, which has been instrumental in mediating past conflicts, must step up its engagement, leveraging its position to foster dialogue between the two nations.
Moreover, economic cooperation could serve as a bridge to improve relations. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia stand to benefit from joint infrastructure projects, trade agreements, and the shared utilization of ports. By emphasizing mutual gains, these initiatives can help shift the focus away from territorial disputes and historical grievances.
For sustainable peace, however, the internal dynamics of both countries must also be addressed. Eritrea’s authoritarian governance and Ethiopia’s ethnic tensions are significant impediments to stability. Long-term solutions require domestic reforms that empower citizens, promote inclusivity, and respect human rights.
The stakes are high. A renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia would have devastating consequences for the region, displacing millions and undermining fragile development efforts. It would also create a vacuum for extremist groups and exacerbate humanitarian crises, affecting neighboring countries and beyond.
As these two nations navigate their complex relationship, the path to peace requires mutual compromise, robust diplomacy, and the active engagement of regional and global actors. The world will be watching closely, hoping that Eritrea and Ethiopia choose dialogue over confrontation, partnership over rivalry, and a shared future over the shadows of their past.